Article

Up Wing/Down Wing #11

By James Pethokoukis

Faster, Please!

August 10, 2024

A scene with two distinct paths diverging in a surreal landscape. On the left, the path leads to a dark, nightmare dystopia with decaying buildings, dead trees, and a gloomy, overcast sky. The atmosphere is eerie and foreboding, with shadows and twisted, barren terrain. On the right, the path leads to a bright, futuristic utopia with sleek, modern architecture, lush green parks, and a clear, sunny sky. The atmosphere is vibrant and welcoming, with advanced technology and thriving nature. The contrast between the two paths is stark and dramatic.

⤴ Up Wing Things

⚕️ Precision medicine used to target cancer has taken off. Based on research started in the ‘70s by University of Chicago researcher Janet Rowley, gene-targeted therapies have proven to be the most successful in treating cancer. They enable a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) that blocks the BCR-ABL protein from fusing two separate genes, which triggers uncontrollable cancerous growth. Researchers are also looking to start using combination therapies in conjunction with the 50 different types of TKIs in order to “boost efficacy” of the drugs. (Ars Technica)

⚡ Another tech startup, found in another garage. Breakthrough Energy, a climate tech organization founded and funded by Bill Gates, aims to identify and fund promising early-stage startups. They have “supported 42 companies spanning the gamut of climate tech,” and take risky bets on very nascent companies. In order to find these young companies, the organization seeks out founders at universities, who are typically graduate school students or post doctoral students. The award for a promising idea can reach up to $500,000. (TechCrunch)

⚡ Our goal of net zero emissions by 2030 may be more attainable than what doomsayers claim. Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, is optimistic about the worldwide attempt to transition to renewables, and says progress is being made much more quickly than what was expected earlier this century. It will take huge amounts of surface area and investment, and he hopes for a $3 trillion investment by 2030. “The German system has been running close to 100 per cent on renewables,” which gives Turner hope that similarly structured nations will follow closely behind. (Financial Times)

✈️ Waste fats, oils, and renewable energies are being used to make fuel that reduces carbon emissions. World Energy, a company founded by Gene Gebolys, has developed a jet fuel that “can be used by today’s planes without special equipment,” and “reduces carbon emissions by up to 70 per cent,” according to the UK government. While more expensive to produce than ordinary jet fuel, the company has found that the uber-wealthy who are focused on minimizing carbon emissions are willing to fork over a few extra dollars. World Energy allows the markets to do the work and sell to consumers who actually want the product. (Financial Times Opinion)

✳️ If smashing protons together wasn’t already a crazy enough idea, now producers are making a musical about it. David Henry Hwang was pitched the idea of creating a musical based on “Particle Fever,” a film produced by Hopkins University physicist David Kaplan. The film follows the story of CERN scientists’ discovery of the Higgs particle, which was thought to be the basis for widely agreed upon concepts in modern physics. Ms. Roney of ROCO Films saw the movie and decided that some aspects of the film couldn’t be effectively communicated verbally, and decided a musical was the answer. (New York Times)

🌒 The Moon could be used to preserve the genetic material of endangered species. Researchers led by Dr. Mary Hagedorn of the Smithsonian National Zoo and the Conservation Biology Institute are working towards a lunar library, called a biorepository, where we could preserve genetic sequences thanks to the Moon’s extremely low temperatures. Biorepositories already exist on Earth, but are increasingly threatened by climate change and geopolitical tensions. These researchers hope to come to international agreements in order to make this storage solution happen. (The Debrief)

⚕️ Various new treatments could get us closer to solving the opioid crisis. The startup OpiAID is developing an algorithm to help clinicians track symptoms of stress that come from opioid withdrawal. Masimo, a health technology company, is releasing a device called “Bridge” that stimulates nerves in the brain to relieve the symptoms of withdrawal, such as nausea. Researchers at West Virginia University are developing an ingestible sensor that can detect sleep apnea from within the stomach, which can be “a proxy for opioid-induced respiratory depression,” which can lead to decreased blood oxygen concentration. (IEEE Spectrum)

🌒 There’s one place where global warming might actually be helpful – and it’s not on Earth. Scientists at Northwestern University are trying to figure out how to trap heat in the dust particles on Mars in the hopes of making it habitable for humans. They used the iron and aluminum in the dust particles to construct 9-micrometer-long rods, and discovered “they absorbed infrared radiation and … scattered radiation back down to Mars… [which] determines whether an aerosol particle creates a greenhouse effect.” After putting the rods through a simulation of Mars’s atmosphere, they determined the temperature could be heated by about 10 degrees Celsius within months. (Science)

⚛️ Microwaves could carve the path to nuclear fusion. Researchers at the US Department of Energy, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Tokamak Energy, and Kyushu University in Japan are collaborating to create a compact tokamak. A tokamak confines plasma into a spherical shape that requires ohmic heating, which could prove to be simpler and more economical at a smaller scale. The scientists are trying to find a way to perfect the angle of radiation and amount of heating within the tokamak in order to successfully produce controlled nuclear fusion power. (Scitech Daily)

🚅 A maglev train just hit an eye-popping top speed of 621 miles per hour. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation tested their train under low-vacuum conditions in a tube, which means “aerodynamics and wind resistance become almost completely a non-factor.” The train should be able to get from Beijing to Shanghai “in as little as an hour and a half.” It has outdone Japan’s high speed train, which hits 374 mph. Safety issues with the tube are still being considered, as well as consumer costs, but its completion looks promising. (New Atlas)

☀️ We’re moving solar panels from rooftops to outer space. A startup based in Florida called Star Catcher is working on the ability to gather electricity with satellites within Earth’s orbit. They project that energy needs will skyrocket with the amount of satellites projected to launch between now and 2030, with a 20-fold increase in demand. Satellite companies will be able to alert Star Catcher of its satellite’s path through space, and the power nodes on the Star Catcher satellite will direct energy to the requested satellite’s solar panels. Despite high costs, consultants and engineers in the field say the idea has great potential. (IEEE Spectrum)

⤵ Down Wing Things

🏭 Recent statements paint the manufacturing industry in a poor light. JD Vance recently suggested that the US manufacturing industry’s relative drop in employment is hurting Americans more than helping them, and that manufacturing should be driven away from China. In reality, the shift to international production has lended to cheaper and more plentiful goods becoming available to a wider variety of people, and has therefore strongly improved living standards over the last few decades. Additionally, the US has added “twice as many manufacturing job openings as in the early 2000s.” (WSJ Opinion)

🌍 The popularity of degrowth is rising. Kohei Saito, a philosopher and associate professor at the University of Tokyo, has been reviving Marxist ideas of biophysical limitations of the Earth, and the idea that innovation directly opposes ecological considerations. In his view, humanity must acknowledge the tangible limits of our world, and not push them further. However, humanity has historically proven able to innovate our way around these limitations, and has been able to prove the Malthusian-type limited mindset as incorrect. Despite naysayers, we have pushed beyond the population and agricultural limitations time and time again. (Jacobin)

⚡ Demand for energy is outpacing the rate at which clean energy is growing. In order to fill in the gap, countries have been turning to oil and coal to keep up with the high levels of energy consumption. Countries besides wealthy ones are facing difficulties in the attempt to transition to clean energy, and this inertia will most likely prevent us from reaching our goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century. The US and China are leading the effort, with 14 percent of American energy being produced by solar and wind sources. Of the “60 nuclear reactors under construction worldwide, 26 of them are in China, compared to seven in India.” (Breakthrough Journal)

👶 The US has never needed a fertility policy – until now.  The steadily declining birth rate for American women is teetering below replacement levels, which will make it difficult for the economy to continue trending up. Surveys conducted by the New York Times and Morning Consult show that women want to have more children, but extraneous circumstances like lacking paid time off and high childcare costs scare them away. Fortunately, “the number of births for women believed to be near the end of childbearing age has stabilized,” signifying that older women are taking the role that younger women used to. (Bloomberg Opinion)

🤖 A California bill threatens to stifle AI innovation. SB 1047, a lengthy legislation whose wording vaguely requires AI companies to conduct safety tests, is vehemently opposed by the private sector. This could have a “chilling effect” on the evolution of AI, according to startup head Luther Lowe, as most of the AI companies in the US are based in California. The senator who drafted the bill, Scott Weiner, says he is open to modification of the bill, but realizes that “there are people in the tech sector who are opposed to any and all forms of regulation.” Stanford University professor Andrew Ng says he has “no idea what to do” with some clauses of the bill. (WSJ)

🤖 Employee departures from OpenAI are raising questions about the progress being made on AGI there. Greg Brockman, John Schulman, and Peter Deng, three major leaders of OpenAI, have left the company either temporarily or permanently for various reasons. In response to this, AI developer Benjamin De Kraker posted on X, “If OpenAI is right on the verge of AGI, why do prominent people keep leaving?” Several employees have also left for rival Anthropic, with one alignment researcher raising concerns over OpenAI’s handling of alignment safety. These departures are sparking concern over whether or not OpenAI can live up to Sam Altman’s promise of releasing AGI in the “reasonably close-ish future.” (Ars Technica)

👶 Babies born as early as 22 weeks old now have a chance for survival. Unfortunately, their chance depends on where they’re delivered – some hospitals don’t have the resources or manpower to dedicate to such a premature baby. The costs can reach up to $100,000 per child, which is another limitation for hospitals and parents. Dr. Edward Bell, a neonatologist at the University of Iowa Hospital, says they’ve “seen the limit of viability move about a week every 10 years.” We have the technology to care for these babies, it just needs to be distributed. (WSJ)


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