Russian warships in Ireland’s EEZ demonstrate the Defender’s Dilemma

Suddenly they appeared in Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone: a small group of Russian Navy ships. And then the ships interrupted their journey: they simply stayed there, off the coast of Ireland but outside Ireland’s territorial waters. The Russians hadn’t told anyone the purpose of this unexpected visit, and the vessels had the right to sail into the EEZ. But the loitering visitors near the undersea cables connecting Ireland to the world gave the Irish government and the wider Western alliance a mighty headache: how are countries to defend themselves against menacing visitors who don’t use violence or break any laws? The Russian vessels did the alliance a service: they powerfully demonstrated the need for a Western strategy to counter threats below the threshold of armed military violence.

“It is carefully monitored by Ireland and by others and that is an ongoing scenario where people track what’s happening within international waters and, indeed, within the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which is quite large in itself,” Ireland’s Foreign Minister, Micheal Martin, told media a couple of days into the Russian visit, adding that “I don’t see it as a threat, but it’s something we are very conscious of and we keep a very close eye on”. He was responding to a question by an Irish Member of the European Parliament, who had suggested the Russians might be spying or preparing to sabotage sea-based equipment.

The MEP was right to worry about such activities: in addition to being connected to the world by means of undersea internet cables, Ireland also has sea-based wind farms. Indeed, as the green energy transition picks up speed, Ireland and other countries will expand their off-shore wind farms. The government in Dublin, though, could do little more than keep a close eye on the unwelcome visitors, just like countries around the world can do little more than keep a close eye on the Chinese fishing fleets that arrive in their waters and fish them dry (and damage their seabeds). Countries have jurisdiction over fishing in their territorial waters and can set quotas in their EEZ, but China’s massive long-distance fleet habitually violates such rules. The harmed countries monitor the activity and hope that some higher international body will be able to shame China into compliance.

Ireland won’t be able to keep the Russian Navy away by appealing to its sense of decorum, especially since the vessels (which have made several visits) comply with international rules. Instead Ireland would need a powerful navy that could surveil the country’s waters and remind uninvited visitors that they’d better get up to no mischief. Ireland, alas, has only a tiny navy featuring a fleet of six patrol vessels.

The country’s most effective deterrence measure so far has instead been delivered by its fishermen. In January 2022, a Russian naval exercise off the coast of Ireland was to begin. Dublin’s pleas with Moscow to conduct the exercise away from Ireland had gone nowhere. The fishermen, though, proved more skilled deterrence thinkers than their country’s politicians. “Our boats will be going out to that area on the first of February to go fishing,” Patrick Murphy, the chief executive of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation, told news media. “When one boat needs to return to port, another will head out so there is a continuous presence on the water. If that is in proximity to where the [military] exercise is going, we are expecting that the Russian naval services abide by the anti-collision regulations.” The fishing boats’ constant presence in the waters would prevent the Russian Navy vessels from doing very much at all. Russia canceled the exercise. The fishermen, a group mostly looked down on by the so-called educated classes, had succeeded where well-educated strategic thinkers in governments had failed. And they demonstrated that even countries facing a Defender’s Dilemma (aggression that is real but not involving military violence) can push back without escalating — if they think creatively.

The Russian Navy’s latest visit to the waters off the Irish coast has highlighted the Defender’s Dilemma to Ireland’s friends. Let’s hope they consider how they would respond to future visits by such uninvited guests. They might even consider inviting a group of Irish fishermen to provide advice.