Is Trump Overreaching? What Early Polls Say
January 27, 2025
Pollsters have been busy in recent weeks laying a public opinion foundation for Donald Trump’s second term. The new data support a truism: Americans aren’t ideologues. They want significant but measured policy change. A look at the new polls provides evidence in some key areas.
Trade: Trump has discussed a new 10 percent tariff on imports from China and a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. There is longstanding concern in public opinion about China’s unfair trade practices as well as sustained support for protecting workers’ jobs and American manufacturing. Fifty-two percent of registered voters in the new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll favored imposing tariffs on China. Fewer, 40 percent, supported new tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In a new AP/NORC poll, only 29 percent favored a tariff on all imports, while 46 percent opposed the idea. Sixty-eight percent in the Wall Street Journal poll said new tariffs would raise prices.
Immigration: Americans want policymakers to get serious about the border and illegal immigration. In the Harvard/Harris poll, 61 percent favored closing the border and reinstating past policies that discouraged illegal immigration (39 percent were opposed). Seventy-one percent favored deporting undocumented or illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (29 percent were opposed). There is majority support in several polls for mass deportations. The new Fox poll, however, provides a more nuanced impression: 30 percent of registered voters wanted to deport all illegal immigrants, 50 percent deport only those with a criminal record (but allow those without a record to remain and eventually qualify for citizenship), and 10 percent allow all illegal immigrants to stay.
NATO: For years, Americans have believed our NATO allies aren’t contributing their fair share to defense costs. Forty-five percent in the Harvard/Harris poll wanted to raise NATO members’ minimum contributions to 5 percent of their GDP, but 55 percent were opposed to this substantial increase which is larger than what the US spends on its own defense. Only 24 percent wanted to withdraw from the alliance.
Energy and Environment Policy: Americans want to tap America’s vast energy potential — but carefully. Forty-seven percent in the Harvard/Harris poll favor undoing Biden’s ban on offshore oil and gas drilling, but 53 percent are opposed. In the AP/NORC poll, the public split more evenly on increased oil drilling on federal lands, with 35 percent in favor, 39 percent opposed, and 25 percent in the middle. In the Wall Street Journal poll, 50 percent favored easing these regulations, but 46 percent were opposed. More than twice as many Americans opposed withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement as favored the action, 52 percent to 21 percent. As the data on NATO and energy show, Americans see value in working with other countries to address problems.
Pardons: In the AP/NORC poll conducted before Trump’s executive order, 60 percent opposed pardoning most people who participated in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, with 21 percent in favor. The Wall Street Journal poll found 57 percent opposed and 38 percent in favor.
Government: Americans have long believed that the government in Washington is wasteful and inefficient. In the Journal’s poll, 53 percent wanted Trump to make changes in how government is run, but 61 percent opposed closing the Department of Education. Sixty-one percent opposed replacing thousands of career civil servants with presidential appointees.
In many areas, self-identified Trump supporters are very different from other voters. They are, for example, much more supportive of deporting all immigrants than the nation as a whole (90 percent to 55 percent) and imposing tariffs (82 percent to 46 percent), according to a new CBS News poll. In a three-part question about DEI, 64 percent of Trump supporters but just 34 percent of US adults wanted to end or decrease DEI programs. Seventeen percent of his supporters wanted to expand these programs compared to 34 percent of the total sample.
In the new Fox poll,, 42 percent of self-identified Trump voters wanted the new president to work across the aisle to get things done, but 55 percent wanted him to advance his agenda and policies even if it means division. Sixty-five percent nationally wanted to work together, while 32 percent wanted him to push ahead. Trump’s base alone did not put him over the top on Election Day, and he will need the support of less ideological voters.
President Trump claimed that “The entire nation is rapidly unifying behind our agenda.” That’s true on some issues such as border control and many aspects of immigration policy. There are other issues where majorities oppose his actions, but the issues themselves have little political intensity to drive significant opposition. Americans won’t rise up over a decision to leave the Paris Agreement. Then there are issues the public strongly disapproves of, like his sweeping pardons (and Biden’s too). Lukewarm public opinion to some of his executive orders and a cascade of lawsuits are warning signs that overreaching could deplete the political capital he needs to govern.